Hamid Amadeh; Hossein Tavakolian; mehdi hedayati nia
Abstract
The increasing demand of fossil fuels alongside its environmental pollution necessitates the optimal consumption of the fuels. In cold seasons, natural gas consumption increases and power plants of the country need to substitute their consumed fuel in order to supply electricity. This paper evaluated ...
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The increasing demand of fossil fuels alongside its environmental pollution necessitates the optimal consumption of the fuels. In cold seasons, natural gas consumption increases and power plants of the country need to substitute their consumed fuel in order to supply electricity. This paper evaluated the substitution between consumable fuels in electricity production in six selected regional electricity companies during the years 1389-1386. Cost share equations of conventional fuels in electricity generation were estimated using the seemingly unrelated regression equations (SURE) estimator. Using the results of the estimation, equations of the own-and cross-price elasticities of the substitution of different fuels were calculated. According to the results of calculations, all the own price elasticities were negative and cross price elasticities were positive. The substitute elasticity between natural gas and gasoil was 1.56 and between natural gas and mazut was 1.3. Also, using the calculated elasticities, the substitution of fuels was applied with the aim of reducing CO2 emissions. The application results showed that the substitution of mazut with natural gas would reduce CO2 emissions, but the substitution of gasoil with natural gas would increase CO2 emissions.
marzieh pakniyat; Javid Bahrami; Hossein Tavakolian; Somayeh Shahhosseini
Abstract
Banks as financial intermediaries play an important role in facilitating the economic cycle. The implications of the bank’s investment in the housing sector in Iran's economy, which is prone to Dutch disease, is a concern of the present study and we have designed a Keynesian dynamic stochastic ...
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Banks as financial intermediaries play an important role in facilitating the economic cycle. The implications of the bank’s investment in the housing sector in Iran's economy, which is prone to Dutch disease, is a concern of the present study and we have designed a Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for it. The results of the model, which confirm the Dutch disease during a positive oil shock, suggest that banks' investment in the housing sector when production in the economy is growing and the amount of concessional facilities has increased, is a well-accepted and profitable. The positive shock of labor productivity in the manufacturing sector and the shock of monetary policy will put the economy in a position where production in the economy will increase and banks' investment in the housing sector will be profitable. But in a space where production is declining and the size of the granting of bank facilities is decreased, as the economy faces a positive shock to labor productivity in the housing sector or a positive shock to oil revenues, the freezing of banks' assets in the housing sector has not been favorable and, furthermore, putting them at risk by reducing profits and falling capital in banks.
arash fakhrizadeh; Hossein Tavakolian; Seyyed Ahmad Reza Jalali Naini
Abstract
The present article adopts the new approach to fiscal policy in the commodity (oil) exporting developing countries to avoid the "Dutch Disease" phenomenon and instead guide the economy toward "Dutch Vigor" through “sustainability and scaling up of public investment”. This approach results ...
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The present article adopts the new approach to fiscal policy in the commodity (oil) exporting developing countries to avoid the "Dutch Disease" phenomenon and instead guide the economy toward "Dutch Vigor" through “sustainability and scaling up of public investment”. This approach results in greater stability of the real exchange rate and economic growth. We cast this issue in the context of a multi-sector dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) for the Iranian economy. Three fiscal rules are used to allocate oil revenues for saving, current government expenditures, and government investments. The allocation process is done in two stages. First, the share of oil revenues to a sovereign wealth fund (SWF) is determined. Second, the remainder is allocated between current and investment expenditures. We look for a smooth public investment path. By estimating the structural parameters of the model, the share of SWF, current, and investment expenditures that are consistent with the objectives of sustainability and higher investment scale can be measured. Comparison of the results of simulations of the model show that a smooth public investment path and saving in SWF combined with central bank sterilization of the money base, due to increases in the net foreign assets, not only contributes to sustainability of investment and reduced real exchange rate volatility, but also helps the monetary authority to pursue its objectives.
